State of Student Aid in Texas – 2022

Section 1: Texas Demographics

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Texas’ Future Depends on Addressing Educational Equity

From 2010 to 2050, Texas is expected to add 3.8 million more children under age 18 and 1.7 million more adults aged 18 to 24 — the traditional college age population. The population age 25 to 64 will grow by almost six million, while the numbers of those aged 65 and older will swell by more than five million. Despite the increase in the number of children and young adults, people aged 24 and younger will actually drop slightly as a percentage of the population, from 28 percent to 27 percent. Meanwhile, people aged 65 and older will increase from 10 percent to 18 percent.

As Texas changes from a majority-White to a more pluralistic state and experiences an increase in the percentage of the elderly population, a significant difference emerges with respect to population by age. In 2050, 49 percent of children, 47 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds, and 42 percent of 25- to 44-year-olds will likely be Hispanic. By contrast, only 37 percent of those 65 and older are expected to be Hispanic. The African American population will remain relatively stable, at 12 percent to 14 percent of each age group. Increasingly, the future of Texas, including its economic prosperity, as well as the expertise needed to run business, government, and infrastructure, will depend on the education of all populations including those racial/ethnic groups which historically have had lower incomes, higher rates of poverty, and lower likelihood of attending and completing college than Whites.

Texas Population by Age in Millions and Percentage of Total in Each Year: 2010 and 2050 (Projected)

Texas Population by Age in Millions and Percentage of Total in Each Year: 2010 and 2050 (Projected)

Projected* 2050 Population by Age and Ethnicity in Texas

Projected* 2050 Population by Age and Ethnicity in Texas

Source: Texas Demographic Center, “Texas Population Projections Program: 2018 Population Projections”, Population Projections for State of Texas by Age Group (https://demographics.texas.gov/Data/TPEPP/Projections/).

Texas Poverty Rate Increases, is Higher Than National Average

The prevalence of people in the U.S. living in poverty increased from 10.5 percent in 2019 to 11.4 percent in 2020. In 2020, Texas had the eighth highest poverty rate in the nation and a poverty rate higher than the national average. The 2020 data represents the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a detrimental impact on poverty for people across the country. In 2020, poverty was defined as having an income of $26,246 or less for a family of four with two children, or $13,465 or less for an individual under 65 years old.

People in Poverty, States with Highest Rates (2020)

People in Poverty, States with Highest Rates (2020)

At 14.0 percent, Texas had the highest poverty rate among the six largest states, followed by Florida at 13.2 percent and New York at 11.8 percent. Only two of the six largest states observed a decreased poverty rate between 2019 and 2020.

People in Poverty, Largest States (2020)

People in Poverty, Largest States (2020)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Historical Poverty Tables: People and Families – 1959 to 2020 (https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-poverty-people.html)

Texas Poverty Rates Vary Widely by Region

The 2019 poverty rate in Texas was 13.6 percent overall and 19.2 percent for children under 18; however, these rates vary widely by region. By a large margin, the Rio Grande region has the highest rates of overall and childhood poverty at 26 and 36 percent respectively – at least 10 percentage points higher than the next highest region. Because poverty disrupts housing patterns and makes educational attainment challenging, the disproportional poverty rates in the Rio Grande region may reduce college going rates, absent student support initiatives. In all regions, the poverty rate for children was higher than for the total population.

In 2019, poverty was defined as having an income of $25,926 or less for a family of four with two children, or $13,300 or less for an individual under 65 years old.

Poverty Rate by Region (2019)

Poverty Rate by Region (2019)

Source: Definition of Poverty: U.S. Census Bureau, “Poverty Thresholds: 2020” (https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-poverty-thresholds.html); Poverty rates by region: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, “Poverty estimates for the U.S., States, and counties, 2019” (http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/county-level-data-sets/download-data.aspx).

Income Needed For Self Sufficiency Varies Considerably by Family Composition

The Self Sufficiency Standard, developed by the Center for Women’s Welfare at the University of Washington School of Social Work, determines the income families need in order to meet their basic needs at a minimally adequate level without using public or private assistance. The basic needs included in the calculation are housing, child care, food, transportation, health care, taxes (minus federal and state tax credits), and other expenses such as telephone, clothing, and household items. The costs are specific to the geographic location and to family size and age of children.

The annual income needed to be self sufficient varies somewhat by Texas region, with the lowest income needed in the Rio Grande Valley region and the highest income needed in the Metroplex region. A single parent with one child would need nearly double the income of a single adult to be self-sufficient, and an income of more than double if they have two children.

* Costs for pre-school aged child.
** Costs for pre-school aged child and school-aged child.

Minimum Annual Salary Needed to be Self Sufficient Without Public or Private Assistance (2021)

Minimum Annual Salary Needed to be Self Sufficient Without Public or Private Assistance (2021)

Source: Center for Women’s Welfare, University of Washington School of Social Work, Self Sufficiency Standard (https://selfsufficiencystandard.org/).

Lack of Health Insurance Destabilizes Finances, Makes College-Going Precarious

About nine percent of Americans lacked health insurance coverage in 2019. The percentage is much higher in Texas. At 18 percent, Texas is approximately twice the national average. It has the highest percentage of any state, with Oklahoma coming in second at 14 percent.

Family health crises can be unpredictable, and the resulting financial disruption can derail college plans. While financial aid administrators can make mid-year adjustments using professional judgement, this requires students to make a formal appeal, and adjustments may still be insufficient to help the student stay in school.

People Without Health Insurance, Large States (2019)

People Without Health Insurance, Large States (2019)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2019” (https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html).

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