State of Student Aid in Texas – 2021

Section 2: Texas College Readiness

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Texas College Prep Test Scores Keep Pace with, But Fail to Exceed, National Average

More than 250,000 Texas high school seniors and nearly 2.2 million high school seniors nationwide — well over half the total graduating class for both groups — took the SAT in the 2019–2020 school year. Average SAT scores are lower in Texas compared to the U.S. in both Evidence-Based Reading and Writing, and in Math.

SAT Average Scores for 2020 High School Graduates

SAT Average Scores for 2020 High School Graduates

In Texas, the American College Test (ACT) has fewer test takers than the SAT. Thirty-eight percent of the class of 2020 Texas high school graduates took the ACT, down from 39 percent in 2019. Nationally, 49 percent of high school graduates took the exam. While average ACT composite scores in Texas have often lagged slightly behind national averages, the average composite score for Texas graduates has roughly mirrored that of the nation as a whole in recent few years, with slight variations in each subject area. Texas exceeds the nation in Math scores among ACT test takers.

ACT Average Scores (2020)

ACT Average Scores (2020)

Percent of ACT Test Takers Meeting the Benchmark, By Subject Area (2020)

Percent of ACT Test Takers Meeting the Benchmark, By Subject Area (2020)

Source: SAT: The College Board, SAT Data & Reports, College-Bound Seniors 2020 (https://reports.collegeboard.org/pdf/2020-total-group-sat-suite-assessments-annual-report.pdf; https://reports.collegeboard.org/pdf/2020-texas-sat-suite-assessments-annual-report.pdf); ACT: ACT, National and State Scores 2020 (https://www.act.org/content/act/en/research/services-and-resources/data-and-visualization/grad-class-database.html).

Texas High School Students Less Prepared for College Academics

The Preliminary SAT (PSAT) and National Merit Scholar Qualifying Test (NMSQT) help high school sophomores and juniors prepare for the SAT and plan for college. The College Board has developed college readiness benchmark scores that students should meet or exceed in order to be considered on track for college readiness. Based on this measure, Texas sophomores and juniors lag behind their national peers, which may translate into lower college success rates, slower progression to college degrees, and higher total college costs.

PSAT/NMSQT Test Takers Who Are on Track to be College Ready (2019-2020)

PSAT/NMSQT Test Takers Who Are on Track to be College Ready (2019-2020)

The Advanced Placement (AP) program offers more than 30 college-level courses and examinations to high school students. These courses satisfy high school diploma requirements, and sufficient scores on the exams can help students gain admission to selective colleges and even earn college credit (at the institution’s discretion). Since 2005, all public higher education institutions in Texas that have freshman level courses have been required to grant credit to incoming students who earn a 3 or higher on an AP exam.

Texas trailed the nation in success rates in 2020, with 54 percent of test takers earning at least a 3 on an AP exam compared to 64 percent nationally. The percentage of AP test takers who scored at least a 3 on at least one AP test has declined both nationally and in Texas since 2000, however, the total numbers of AP test takers have also increased significantly during this time period.

Percent of AP Test Takers who Scored at Least a 3 on at Least One AP Test (2000 – 2020)

Percent of AP Test Takers who Scored at Least a 3 on at Least One AP Test (2000 - 2020)

Source: PSAT/NMSQT: The College Board, PSAT/NMSQT Data & Reports (https://reports.collegeboard.org/pdf/2020-texas-sat-suite-assessments-annual-report.pdf; https://reports.collegeboard.org/pdf/2020-total-group-sat-suite-assessments-annual-report.pdf); AP: The College Board, AP Program and Participation Data 2020 (https://research.collegeboard.org/programs/ap/data/archived/ap-2019).

Texas Tops the Most Populous States in High School Graduation Rates

Texas ranked third in the nation for high school graduation rates in 2017-2018, tying with five other states at 90 percent. Texas ranked highest among the six most populous states and led them in graduation rates within racial and ethnic groups. Nationally, the overall graduation rate in 2017-2018 was 85 percent.

High School Graduation Rates (2017-2018)

High School Graduation Rates (2017-2018)

The recent increases in high school graduation rates have been due in part to dramatic reductions in the number of “dropout factory” high schools in the past 10 years. These schools are defined as having 60 percent or less of their ninth-grade class still enrolled in their senior year. In 2002, more than 2.6 million students were enrolled in these high schools compared to less than 900,000 in 2015.

High School Graduation Rates, by Race/Ethnicity (2017-2018)

High School Graduation Rates, by Race/Ethnicity (2017-2018)

Source: Graduation Rates: U.S. Department of Education, ED Data Express, Data about elementary and secondary schools in the U.S. (https://eddataexpress.ed.gov/); All else: America’s Promise Alliance, 2017 Building a Grad Nation Report: Progress and Challenge in Raising High School Graduation Rates (http://gradnation.americaspromise.org/report/2017-building-grad-nation-report#driver-5-low-graduation-rate-high-schools).

Fifteen Percent of Texans Age 25 or Older Lack a High School Diploma

In 2019, 15 percent of people age 25 and older (or 3 million people) in Texas had not finished high school. This is almost the same percentage as California (16 percent) and a higher percentage than any other state in the nation. A legacy of historical educational inequity, more recent cohorts of high school graduates rank Texas near the top compared to other states, but change on this metric is slow to achieve.

People Age 25 and Older Who Have Not Finished High School (2019)

People Age 25 and Older Who Have Not Finished High School (2019)

The high school completion rates of different racial and ethnic groups vary widely. Although these disparities exist in other states, they are particularly important for a “minority-majority” state like Texas. Data from 2016 (the most current source available for rates by racial/ethnic group) show that:

  • Hispanics, who comprised over a third of the Texas population in 2016 and who are projected to comprise 43 percent by 2050, are the least likely to have obtained a high school diploma. As of 2016, 37 percent of Hispanics age 25 and older had not finished high school. While still very high, this is a significant improvement since 2006 when 46 percent of Hispanics had not finished high school.
  • Approximately 12 percent of African-Americans in Texas have not completed high school. This represents a major improvement since 2006, when 17 percent of African-Americans had not finished high school.

People Age 25 and Older Who Have Not Finished High School (2016)

People Age 25 and Older Who Have Not Finished High School (2016)

Source: Texas Demographic Center, Texas Population Projections Program, “Population Projections for the State of Texas and Counties in One File,” 2018 (https://demographics.texas.gov/Data/TPEPP/Projections/Index.aspx); High school completion among 25 and older: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Detailed Tables (http://www.census.gov/acs/www/); High school graduation rates: U.S. Department of Education, ED Data Express, Data about elementary and secondary schools in the U.S. (http://eddataexpress.ed.gov/).

Only Half of Texas High School Graduates Enroll in College Immediately after High School

In 2000, Texas set the goal of “Closing the Gaps” in participation and success in higher education by 2015 by increasing the number of students enrolled and the number of degrees awarded. The new 15-year plan, 60x30TX, began in 2015, building on the goals and results of the “Closing the Gaps” plan.

In 2005, 50 percent of all Texas high school graduates entered college in the summer or fall immediately after high school graduation. This increased to 54 percent in 2009, but steadily declined each year from 2010-2017, falling back to 50 percent by 2017 where it has roughly remained.

While the percentage of White students who enroll immediately after high school still exceeds the percentage of non-Whites, this gap is closing. There was a 16-percentage point gap between White students and Hispanic students in 2005. This shrank to three percentage points in 2019 due both to rising college enrollment rates among Hispanic students and unfortunately dropping rates among White students. The gap between African-American and White students has also been closing. The straight-to-college pathway traditionally results in higher postsecondary attainment rates compared to delaying college entry after high school graduation.

Percentage of Texas High School Graduates Enrolling in College Immediately after Graduation*

Percentage of Texas High School Graduates Enrolling in College Immediately after Graduation*

* Includes only Texas high school graduates who enrolled in a Texas public or private, nonprofit college or university. Data on students who enrolled at proprietary institutions or enrolled in out-of-state schools are not available. In AY 2007–2008, about 93 percent of Texas students who enrolled in college immediately after high school graduation were attending school in their state of residence.
Source: Texas Demographic Center, Texas Population Projections Program, “Population Projections for the State of Texas and Counties in One File,” 2018 (https://demographics.texas.gov/Data/TPEPP/Projections/Index.aspx); High school completion among 25 and older: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Detailed Tables (http://www.census.gov/acs/www/); High school graduation rates: U.S. Department of Education, ED Data Express, Data about elementary and secondary schools in the U.S. (http://eddataexpress.ed.gov/).

Low-Income Texas High School Graduates Are Less Likely to Directly Enroll in College

Economically disadvantaged* high school graduates in Texas are less likely to directly enroll in college. This is true across all racial and ethnic categories but is especially pronounced for White students.

Percentage of 2018-2019 Texas High School Graduates Enrolled in Texas Higher Education in Fall 2019, by Ethnicity

Percentage of 2018-2019 Texas High School Graduates Enrolled in Texas Higher Education in Fall 2019, by Ethnicity

Only 23 percent of White high school graduates in Texas are considered to be economically disadvantaged, while 68 percent of Hispanic and 65 percent of African-American high school graduates are considered economically disadvantaged.

Number of 2018-2019 Texas High School Graduates, by Ethnicity

Number of 2018-2019 Texas High School Graduates, by Ethnicity

*The Texas Education Agency (TEA) collects data on whether a student is “economically disadvantaged” based on the student’s eligibility for free or reduced lunch as a proxy for family income. The TEA does not have detailed information about family income.
Source: The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, “2018-2019 High School Graduates Enrolled in Higher Education Fall 2019, by Diploma Type and Ethnicity” (unpublished tables).

Rio Grande Valley Has Highest FAFSA Completion Rates in Texas, East Texas the Lowest

The Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) is the standardized financial aid application used by nearly all colleges and universities to award most types of financial aid. By completing the FAFSA, students and their families have access to more financial options and can make more informed decisions about attending college.

Texas became the second state in the nation to require high school seniors to submit a FAFSA application before graduating, with the requirement currently set to go into effect in the 2021-2022 school year. Louisiana started requiring this step last year and has since ranked first among states in FAFSA completion, experiencing a 25 percent increase over the previous year. Illinois has also passed a law requiring FAFSA completion for high school graduation, and many other states are considering similar requirements. While Texas hopes to see a boost in FAFSA completion like Louisiana saw, the pandemic may impede the promise of this legislation in the short-term.

The statewide FAFSA completion rate was 59 percent in fall 2020 and varied from 54 percent in the East Texas region to 66 percent in the Rio Grande Valley region. Many Texas communities promote FAFSA completion to encourage college enrollment, which, in turn, strengthens the skills in their local labor markets. The Rio Grande Valley region, a close-knit community, has been successful in their efforts. Many of the high schools have college admissions specialists on campus, and FAFSA completion work is championed by district leadership.

Fall 2020 FAFSA Completion Rate by Region*

Fall 2020 FAFSA Completion Rate by Region*

* Fall 2020 represents the class of 2019-2020 high school seniors completing the FAFSA as of September 25, 2020.
Source: U.S. Department of Education, Office of Federal Student Aid, FAFSA Completion by High School (http://studentaid.ed.gov/about/data-center/student/application-volume/fafsa-completion-high-school). Number of high school seniors from Texas Education Agency (special request); FAFSA Requirement for High School Seniors: Inside Higher Ed, Making the FAFSA Mandatory (July 10, 2019) (https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2019/07/10/texas-becomes-second-state-require-fafsa-completion); Rio Grande Valley FAFSA efforts: learned via communication with the Austin Chamber of Commerce.

The Importance of College Prep Programs in High School

The Texas Success Initiative (TSI) was created by the state to help colleges and universities assess the college-readiness of incoming students in reading, writing, and math. To meet TSI standards, students either score high enough on an approved TSI assessment or complete an approved TSI exemption (e.g., scoring above a threshold on the SAT, ACT, or TAKS tests, or completing college-level coursework). Students who do not meet TSI standards may be required to complete developmental coursework – courses that often do not count towards a certificate or degree program – before enrolling in college-credit courses.

Of all 2016-17 high school graduates who enrolled in higher education the following fall, 61 percent met TSI standards in math, writing, and reading. However, the percentages of high school students who met all TSI standards varied widely when comparing key characteristics. Students who enrolled in higher education after completing the minimum high school diploma program were far less likely to meet TSI standards than students who completed the College Prep* diploma. Sixty-four percent of students in the College Prep diploma program met all TSI standards, compared to just 16 percent of those completing the minimum diploma program.

Low-income high school graduates were also less academically prepared for college than their peers. Fifty percent of students who received free or reduced-price meals in high schools – a common, though imperfect, metric to identify low-income students – met all TSI standards. In contrast, 70 percent of students who did not receive free or reduced-price meals met all TSI standards. College readiness measures also varied based on student demographics. Seventy-three percent of White students met all TSI standards, compared to 54 percent of Hispanic students and 44 percent of African-American students.

Percent of 2016-17 Texas High School Graduates, Enrolled in Texas Higher Education in Fall 2017 that Met All TSI Standards

Percent of 2016-17 Texas High School Graduates, Enrolled in Texas Higher Education in Fall 2017 that Met All TSI Standards

* A high school student who graduates under either the Recommended or Distinguished achievement program is considered to have a College Prep diploma for the purposes of this analysis, and a graduate of the Foundation or Minimum achievement program is considered a Minimum program. The Recommended and Distinguished programs require more completed credits (26) in mathematics, science, social studies, language other than English, and fine arts than the minimum program. The Minimum program has fewer required completed credits (22).
Source: TSI Description and Requirements, College for All Texas, (http://www.collegeforalltexans.com/index.cfm?objectid=63176344-FFFA-217B-60C9A0E86629B3CA). Student Performance on Texas Success Initiative (TSI) Readiness Measures 2016-17 High School Graduates Enrolled in Texas Public Higher Education in Fall 2017, THECB, August 2018, (http://www.txhighereddata.org/index.cfm?objectId=271084AB-F486-92EE-63465FF6417C448E).

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